Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.
A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely.
That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.
Public Fury, Private Calculations
Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.
“The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.”
These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.
Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.
Allies in Decline
For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.
However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.
Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.
“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”
The Ukraine Priority
There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.
“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.
Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks
Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.
This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.
Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.
A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.
“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”
A Dark Optimism
Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.
“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”